Russian ruble returns to pre-Ukrainian invasion level

– The EU is still trying to work out the details of additional Russian sanctions.


– Australian trade balance for February: 7.5 billion Australian dollars against 11.7 billion Australian dollars; Exports M/M: 0% vs. 0%e; M/M imports: 12% vs. 2%e.

– The Chinese government has promised to use monetary policy tools to help the economy in a timely and flexible manner.

– BOJ Noguchi said continued monetary easing is essential as it will take time to reach the CPI target.

– The IMF has cut its GDP growth forecast for Japan for 2022 from 3.3% to 2.4%.

— China Global Times editor Hu Xijin said US House Speaker Pelosi [travelling to Taiwan] was playing with fire, so was the United States. There must be serious consequences for his visit.


– ECB’s Nagel (Germany, hawk) said the ECB may soon need to raise rates as inflation is high.


– March FOMC Minutes: Members largely agreed that monthly caps of around $60 billion for Treasuries and around $35 billion for agency MBS would likely be appropriate. Many participants said one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range might be appropriate in future meetings if inflationary pressures remain high or intensify.

Speakers/Fixed Income/FX/Commodities/Erratum


clues [Stoxx600 +0.62% at 458.80, FTSE -0.16% at 7,575.55, DAX +0.40% at 14,209.27, CAC-40 +0.56% at 6,535.14, IBEX-35 +1.18% at 8,582.50, FTSE MIB +0.65% at 24,607.00, SMI +1.17% at 12,463.79, S&P 500 Futures +0.14%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened generally higher and consolidated gains as the session progressed; sectors among those leading up are consumer discretionary and health care; lagging sectors include energy materials; oil & gas sub-sector under pressure after WTI fell below $100/bbl; FTSE 100 dragged after Shell reveals Russia deficiency; Frontline will merge with Europnav; 888 updates on the William Hill Agreement; focus on publishing ECB minutes later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Conagra, Telecom Italia and Constellation Brands.


Consumer Discretionary: 888 Holdings [888.UK] +25% (acquisition update; trading update and placement), Robert Walter [RWA.UK] +5% (commercial update), Electrolux [ELUXB.SE] +5% (settlement).

Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.5% (update of impairments).


France Finance Min Le Maire said the EU must coordinate before any Russian oil embargo.

EU envoys reportedly close to approving a Russian coal ban that would come into full effect from mid-August (a month later than originally planned).

Chinese Ministry of Defense reiterated its position to urge the United States to immediately withdraw the arms sales plan to Taiwan.

Japan to release 15Mbls of oil as part of the 2nd IEA SPR oil release cycle.

Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI): The weakness of the JPY (Yen) currency was more negative for the domestic economy.

Indonesia Central Bank Dep Gov Waluyo said he expects the 2022 CPI to accelerate closer to the upper limit of the 2% to 4% target, but not in a hurry with a hike in key rates to combat inflation.

Currency/Fixed Income

– The USD remained near a two-year high against a basket of currencies as the latest Fed minutes showed that the FOMC was preparing to act aggressively to avoid inflation. Many FOMC participants were ready to raise interest rates in 50 basis point increments at upcoming meetings.

– EUR/USD retreated below the 1.09 zone as EU officials continued to implement the next round of Russian sanctions. Dealers noted that price action was geared more towards political risk than just monetary policy developments.

– USD/JPY remains below the 124 level with the recent cycle high of the 125 area remaining a key resistance.

– USD/RUB was back to pre-invasion levels with the pair testing the 79 area. The pair was at 121.5 when the conflict in Ukraine started and sanctions were implemented.

Economic data

– (NL) Netherlands March CPI M/M: 3.6% vs. 0.6% before; Y/Y: 9.7% vs. 6.2% before.

– (NL) Netherlands March Harmonized EU M/M CPI: 4.4% vs. 3.0%e; Y/Y: 11.7% versus 8.9%e.

– (CH) Swiss unemployment rate in March: 2.4% vs. 2.3%e; Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted): 2.2% vs. 2.2%e.

(DE) Germany February Industrial production M/M: 0.2% vs. 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.2% vs. 3.7%e.

– (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% vs. +3.3% before; Y/Y: 1.6% versus -0.2% before.

– (NO) Norway Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.1% vs. -0.2% before; Y/Y: -1.9% vs. +3.3% before.

– (ZA) March gross reserves in South Africa: 58.2 billion dollars against 57.7 billion dollars previously; Net reserves: $55.4 billion versus $55.9 billion.

– (SE) March budget balance in Sweden (SEK): 23.4 billion against 85.6 billion previously.

– (AT) Austria Mar Wholesale Price Index M/M: 9.7% vs. 2.2% before; Y/Y: 25.6% vs. 16.3% before.

– (HU) Hungary Preliminary trade balance for February: -0.1 billion euros against -0.2 billion euros before.

– (CH) Swiss March foreign exchange reserves (CHF): 910.5 billion against 938.0 billion previously.

– (HU) the Central Bank of Hungary left the one-week deposit rate unchanged at 6.15%; as expected.

– (MY) Malaysia Foreign reserves at the end of March: 115.6 billion dollars against 115.2 billion dollars previously.

– (CZ) International reserves of Czech Mar: 175.0 billion dollars against 175.4 billion dollars previously.

(CN) China’s foreign reserves in March: 3,188 T$ against 3,199 T$.

– (TW) Taiwan’s foreign reserves in March: 548.8 billion dollars against 550.0 billion dollars previously.

– (United Kingdom) Q4 Final Output Per Hour Y/Y: 0.7% vs. 0.5% prelim.

(EU) Eurozone retail sales in February M/M: 0.3% vs. 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.0% versus 4.9%e.

– (SG) Singapore’s foreign reserves in March: 381.0 billion dollars against 426.6 billion dollars previously.

– (CY) Cyprus March CPI M/M: 1.8% vs. 1.2% before; Y/Y: 7.1% vs. 6.6% before.

Issuance of fixed income securities

(ES) The Spanish Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold a total of 4.5 to 5.5 billion euros against 4.5 to 5.5 billion euros in 2027, 2029 and 2032 bonds.

– Sold 1.507 billion euros of SPGB bonds at 1.50% April; Average return: 0.965% vs. 0.581% before; bid-to-cover: 1.70xv 1.51x front.

– Sold €1.205 billion of a new SPGB 0.80% July 2029 bond; Average return: 1.227% vs. 0.664% before; bid-to-cover: 1.83xv 1.34x front.

– Sold 2.326 billion euros of SPGB bonds at 0.70% April 2032; Average return: 1.601% vs. 1.307% before; Bid to cover: 2.29xv 1.51x before.

– (ES) The Spanish Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €530m vs. €250-750m in the indicated range in November 2033 0.70% inflation-linked bonds (SPGBei); Actual return: -0.852% vs. -1.036% before; Bid to hedge: 1.78xv 1.75x before (March 3, 2022).

(EN) The French Debt Agency (AFT) sold a total of 10.0 to 11.5 billion euros against 10.0 to 11.5 billion euros in 2032, 2038 and 2072 bonds.

– Sold €6.433 billion of Oats 0.00% May 2032; Average return: 1.17% vs. 0.52% before; Bid to hedge: 1.82xv 1.75x before (March 3, 2022).

– Sold €3.466 billion 1.25% May 2038 Oats; Average return: 1.42%; bid-to-cover: 1.75x (no history).

– Sold €1,600bn of Oats 0.50% May 2072; Average return: 1.77% versus 1.11% before; bid-to-cover: 1.84xv 1.88x front.

Look forward

– (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) March balance sheet aggregates: Target2 Liabilities: No is against 568.1 billion euros previously.

– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB liquidity statistics.

– 05:30 (HU) The Hungarian Debt Agency (AKK) will sell bonds.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland March CPI M/M: no east against 0.9% before; Y/Y: no east v 5.6% before.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland March Harmonized EU M/M CPI: no est v 0.9% before; Y/Y: no east v 5.7% before.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: no est v -3.1% ahead; Y/Y: No est v -19.6% before.

– 06:45 (US) Libor daily fixing.

– 07:00 (MX) Mexico March CPI M/M: 0.9%ev 0.8% before; Y/Y: 7.4%ev 7.3% before.

– 07:00 (MX) Mexico March CPI Core M/M: 0.7%ev 0.8% before; Y/Y: 6.7%ev 6.6% before.

– 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Electricity consumption Y/Y: No east v -0.2% before; Electricity production Y/Y: No est v -1.1% before.

– 08:00 (PL) Poland Official Reserves for March: no est against 160.7 billion dollars previously.

– 08:00 (BR) Report Brazil CONAB Corp.

– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

– 8:15 a.m. (UK) BOE (Chief Economist) pill.

08:30 (United States) Initial claims for unemployment insurance: 200Ke against 202K before; Continuing claims: 1.302 M against 1.307 M before.

– 08:30 AM (CL) Chile’s trade balance in March: no east against 0.1 billion dollars before; Total exports: no estimate v $7.6 billion before; Total imports: no est v 7.5 billion before; Copper exports: no estimate vs. $3.8 billion previously.

– 08:30 (CL) Chile International reserves for March: no east against 50.2 billion dollars previously.

– 08:30 (US) USDA Weekly Net Export Sales.

– 09:00 (RU) Russia’s Official Reserve Assets in March: None is vs. $643.2 billion previously.

– 09:00 (RU) Gold and currency reserve of Russia with April 1: no east against $B before.

– 09:00 (CL) Chile Nominal Wage Y/Y: No est v 7.5% before.

– 09:00 (US) Fed Bullard.

– 10:00 (MX) March Minutes of the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

– 10:30 a.m. (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

– 10:30 (TR) Turkey March Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v 55.5 B ahead.

– 11:30 a.m. (US) The Treasury will sell 4 and 8 week notes.

– 2:00 p.m. (US) Fed Bostic.

3:00 p.m. (US) February Consumer credit: $18.1 billion vs. $6.8 billion previously.

– 3:00 p.m. (AR) February industrial production in Argentina Y/Y: no east v -0.3% before; Construction activity Y/Y: No is v -5.0% aging.

– 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Heavy Truckometer M/M: None is v 1.4% ahead.

– 19:00 (KR) February current account balance in South Korea: no est vs. $1.8 billion before; Balance of goods (BOP): No est against 0.7 billion dollars before.

– 7:00 PM (PE) Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise benchmark rate by 50bps to 4.50%.

– 19:50 (JP) Japan February Current account balance: +¥1,450Te v -¥370.8B before; Adjusted current account: 274.8 B ¥ against 787.5 B ¥ previously; Trade balance (Base BoP): – 205.0 B ¥ against 318.7 B ¥ previously.

– 9:00 PM (PH) Philippines Trade Balance in February: -$4.7bn vs. -$5.7bn previously; Exports Y/Y: 10.0%ev 8.9% before; Y/Y imports: 28.2% vs. 25.7% before.

– 9:30 p.m. (AU) RBA-Financial Stability Review.

– 11:00 PM (TH) Thailand Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v 44.3 ahead; Economic confidence: No is v 37.2 before.

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