Most Currency Pairs Seem to Have Stopped


Most currency pairs appear to have come to a halt after the recent sharp move seen over the past week. The Dollar Index and the Euro appear to have ranged between 107.5-105.5 and 1.0250-1.05 respectively while the EURJPY may test resistance at 146 where a rejection towards 142.5 seems possible. The Aussie tested 0.68 as expected and may now drop towards 0.66. Similarly, the pound breaks out of resistance near 1.20 and may fall to 1.18/16. USDJPY may range between 137 and 142 while USDCNY may rise as high as 7.15/20 before facing rejection from there. USDRUB needs to hold above 59 to rally towards 61-63 on the upside. EURINR may pause below 85 and see a correction to 83.50 before resuming the uptrend. USDINR has room to rise towards 81.80/85 or even higher to 82.00 above 80.50.

US Treasury yields fell sharply at the end. Our vision to see more falls remains intact. German yields have fallen sharply across timeframes and keep our bearish view intact. There is room to fall more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI should see strong and sustained upside from here. Otherwise, a further decline cannot be ruled out.

Dow remains broadly stable above 33,500 and remains bullish to see a break up above 34,000 in the coming sessions. The DAX declined towards 14200 and could see a short-term corrective decline. Nikkei looks remote. Shanghai fell sharply as resistance at 3150 held firm. Nifty is hovering around 18400 but the overall outlook is bullish as it sits above support at 18200-18100.

Brent and WTI may stay in range for some time with a bearish view to see a drop towards the lower end of the range. Gold has room to move lower as long as it remains below the key resistance level of 1795-1800. Silver can drop around 9:00 p.m. or lower on a break below 9:30 p.m. Copper has fallen below 3.8 and although below 3.8 there is room for further decline in the coming sessions.


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