CBR cuts policy rate by 300 basis points after RUB currency bounces back to pre-conflict levels

EU Middle Market Update: EU passes 5th round of sanctions against Russia, CBR cuts policy rate by 300 basis points after RUB currency rebounds to pre-conflict levels.


– Calm European session, no publication of crucial data; stocks rose on bullish market sentiment.

– The EU adopted a 5th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on imports of Russian coal.

– The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut the one-week bid rate by 300 basis points to 17.00% as the RUB currency returned to pre-Ukrainian conflict levels.


– The Central Bank of India (RBI) left its policy unchanged (as expected). The focus should be on withdrawing adjustment measures to keep inflation within target. Use all instruments to defend the economy.

– Former BOJ director Hayakawa thought the BOJ would be likely to adjust its policy as early as July; noted concerns about the weak yen and public concerns about inflation.


– Spokesman of the Russian government Peskov: We had significant losses of troops in Ukraine, it is a tragedy.

– EU backs Russian coal embargo in fifth round of sanctions.


– UK companies are said to be raising starting salaries at the fastest rate ever. The increase reflects huge business demand and the impact of the rising cost of living.


– Fed’s Bullard (voter, hawkish dissenter) said he was inclined to support a 50 basis point hike at the May meeting, but would watch the data.

– The Fed’s Evans said the unemployment rate was low and participation could be higher. The Fed was raising rates toward neutral by the end of 2022 or early 23.


– Japan Trade Min Hagiuda said he was working on weaning from Russia.

Speakers/Fixed Income/FX/Commodities/Erratum


clues [Stoxx600 +0.95% at 459.34, FTSE +0.90% at 7,620.12, DAX +1.10% at 14,233.55, CAC-40 +1.08% at #, IBEX-35 +1.00% at 8,552.36, FTSE MIB +1.70% at 24,717.00, SMI +0.53% at 12,438.30, S&P 500 Futures +0.24%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open noticeably higher across the board and remained bullish throughout the early part of the session; sectors leading up include industrials and technology; underperforming sectors include telecommunications and real estate; Vivendi will not increase its stake in Prisa; Stellantis completes sale of Gefco stake; no major earnings are expected in the upcoming US session.


Discretionary consumption: Jet2 [JET2.UK] +5.5% (trade update).

Energy: OMV [OMV.AT] +3% (production update; depreciation of books).

Health: Evotec [EVT.DE] +2% (trigger payment), Genmab [GMAB.DK] -5.5% (arbitrage loss).

Manufacturers: Volvo [VOLVA.SE] +1.5% (impact note of the war in Ukraine).


Germany Fin Min Lindner told parliament that the government was acting to prevent a dangerous wage-price spiral in an effort to dampen perceived inflation.

The EU has adopted a 5th round of sanctions against Russia, including banning Russian coal imports and banning Russian vessels from EU ports.

Russian Central Bank issues intra-political decision statement noted that he left open the prospect of a further rate cut at future meetings.

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida confirmed that the country bans imports of Russian coal and bans imports of certain Russian products. To freeze the assets of Sberbank.

Currency/Fixed Income

– The USD clings to its gains and is helped by recent hawkish Fed rhetoric. Dealers noted the outlook for quick rate hikes from the Fed.

Economic data

– (SE) Sweden February Maklarstatistik House prices Y/Y: 10% vs. 11% before; Apartment prices Y/Y: 7% vs. 7% before.

– (NL) February manufacturing output in the Netherlands M/M: -0.4% vs. -1.5% before; Y/Y: 10.2% vs. 7.4% before; Industrial sales Y/Y: 5.3% vs. 2,637% previously.

– (NO) Norway Feb Overall GDP M/M: +0.7 vs. -1.6% before; Continental GDP M/M: 0.5% vs. 1.0%e.

– (NO) Norway Q1 House Price Index Q/Q: 2.4% vs. 0.8% before.

– (DK) Denmark February M/M industrial production: 1.0% vs. 1.3% before.

– (RO) Romania Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.4% vs. 2.4% prelim.

– (JP) Japan Mar Eco Watchers Current Survey: 47.8 v 45.0e; Prospect Survey: 50.1 v 47.5e.

– (ES) Spain Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% vs. 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.0% vs. 1.7%e; Industrial production NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 3.9% vs. 4.1% before.

– (AT) Austria Feb Industrial Production M/M: 2.2% vs. 4.2% before; Y/Y: 12.2% vs. 13.4% before.

– (HU) Hungary March CPI M/M: 1.0% vs. 1.2%e; Y/Y: 8.5% versus 8.8%e.

– (TR) Central Bank of Turkey TCMB April Inflation Survey Forecast: Next 12 Months: 28.4% vs. 26.4% previously.

– (TH) Thailand’s foreign reserves at the end of March: 241.6 billion dollars against 244.6 billion dollars previously.

– (CN) Weekly copper stocks in Shanghai (SHFE): 96.6 K against 93.1 K tonnes previously.

– (IT) M/M retail sales in Italy in February: 0.7% vs. 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.3% vs. 8.4% before.

– (CZ) Unemployment rate in Czech March: 3.4% vs. 3.5% previously.

– (RU) Narrow money supply of Russia with April 1 (RUB): 14.89 T against 15.34 T before.

– (TW) Taiwan’s trade balance in March: 4.7 billion dollars against 3.9 billion dollars; Exports Y/Y: 21.3% vs. 22.4%e; Y/Y imports: 20.3% vs. 24.3%e.

– (TW) Taiwan March CPI Y/Y: 3.3% vs. 2.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.5% vs. 1.9%e; WPI Y/Y: 13.9% vs. 11.5% before.

– (UK) The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced by 300 basis points at 17.00% (intra-political decision).

– (GR) Greece March CPI Y/Y: 8.9% vs. 7.2% before; Harmonized EU CPI Y/Y: 8.0% vs. 6.3% previously.

– (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: +4.8% vs. -0.5% before.

– (HU) Hungary Mar YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -2.309T against -1.434T before.

Issuance of fixed income securities

– None seen.

Look forward

– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB liquidity statistics.

– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Mar Sacci Business Confidence:

– 05:30 (IN) India will sell combined INR320B bonds in 2026, 2028, 2035 and 2051.

– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa will sell the ZAR1.2B handset in I/L 2033, 2038 and 2050 Bonds.

– 06:00 (PT) Portugal’s trade balance in February: no est v – 1.9 billion euros before.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.4K ahead; Live recording level: none is v 162.8K before.

– 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.0 billion in 1 month, 3 month and 6 month bills (respectively £0.5 billion, £0.5 billion and £1.0 billion pounds sterling).

– 06:45 (US) Libor daily fixing.

– 07:00 (IN) India announces next issue of bills (held on Wednesday).

– 07:15 (IT) ECB Panetta (Italy).

– 07:30 (IS) Iceland will sell RIKB 2024 and 2042 bonds.

– 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve with April 1: No east against $617.6 billion previously.

– 07:30 (GR) ECB’s Stournaras (Greece) with members Makhlouf (Ireland) and Herodotou (Cyprus).

– 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) March Minutes (there are 2 decisions).

– 08:00 (UR) Ukraine March CPI M/M: no east against 1.6% before; Y/Y: no east v 10.7% before.

– 08:00 (IS) Iceland Mar Unemployment rate: No is up from 5.2% before.

– 08:00 (CL) Chile March CPI M/M: 1.2%ev 0.3% before; Y/Y: 8.7%ev 7.8% before.

08:00 (BR) Brazil Tue IBGE IPCA M/M Inflation: 1.4%ev 1.0% before; Y/Y: 11.0%ev 10.5% forward.

– 08:00 (SL) Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise policy rates by 100 basis points.

– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

– 08:00 (IT) ECB Panetta (Italy; dove):.

08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Net change in employment: +79.9K vs. +336.6K before; Unemployment rate: 5.4% against 5.5% before; Change in full-time employment: +41.7K versus +121.5K before; Change in part-time employment: +38.2K versus +215.1K before; Participation rate: 65.4%ev 65.4% before; Y/Y hourly wage rate: 3.7% compared to 3.3% before.

– 09:00 (BR) Vehicle production in Brazil in March: no est v 165.9 K before; Vehicle sales: none is v 129.3K before; Vehicle exports: No is v 41.5K before.

– 10:00 a.m. (United States) February Final inventories of wholesalers M/M: 2.1%ev 2.1% prelim; H/M wholesale sales: 0.8%ev 4.0% before.

– 12:00 (RU) Russia March CPI M/M: 7.8%ev 1.2% before; Y/Y: 16.9%ev 9.2% before.

– 12:00 (RU) Russia Mar Core CPI M/M: 8.3%ev 1.0% forward; Y/Y: 17.3%ev 9.7% before.

– 12:00 (RU) Russia Q4 GDP Y/Y: 4.7%ev 4.3% before; Annual GDP 2021 (final) Y/Y: No est v 4.7% prelim.

12:00 p.m. (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report.

– 12:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.

– 1:00 p.m. (US) Baker Hughes Platform Weekly Count.

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