Analyst predicts how big solar investment costs will rise this year – pv magazine USA


Wood Mackenzie this week made a series of forecasts for the industry in 2022 and noted the effects the recently announced US anti-circumvention investigation is already having on utility-wide plans.

Investment costs for 100 MWdp solar projects are expected to increase by 6% this year, according to an analyst.

belonging to the United States Mackenzie Wood published a note this week that also estimated China will add 75 GW 110 GW of new solar to arrive in the Asia Pacific region in 2022.

The world will pass one terrawatt of solar generation capacity this year, the Edinburgh-based company added, and North America will see its share of new global solar capacity double from 11% last year.

How many?

It was unclear from the memo whether the expected increase in the capital cost of the project would apply only to the United States.

The analyst said he observed a “substantial amount of [solar] module volumes for large-scale projects” reported after California manufacturer Solar Auxin filed an anti-circumvention petition with authorities in February.

Auxin said Chinese companies manufacture products on their home soil and only put the finishing touches on them in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia before labeling them as made in the latter countries to move around. US anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

An anti-circumvention investigation is ongoing and Wood Mackenzie said the development is also prompting some manufacturers to change “importer of record” responsibility on panel buyers.

Germany will lead the European push for solar this decade, predicted Wood Mackenzie, because of a new government coalition and the country’s dependence on Russian gas.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine stands for Russia and The Caspian sea the regions will not add any new solar capacity this year, the analyst said.

Solar manufacturing

Rising solar costs will be partially offset by plans to add enough production lines this year to produce a 200,000 additional tons of polysilicon per yearplus 1 GW more cells, 1 GW of additional wafers and 500 MW of additional modules.

The analyst noted the steps taken by India this year to tax solar imports and strengthen national production would also alter the price and supply dynamics in the United States and India.

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